Rosehill races Saturday: Best tips and analysis

Dangers: It's hard to look at 12. Amelita's silks and not see Winx but she looks a smart filly in her own right off her three trials. Like the way she moved through the line in the latest of those under very little pressure compared to those around her. The time compared well for the morning. 11. Rantan justified being backed into an odds on quote on debut at Newcastle. That was after impressing in two trials prior. It's dangerous putting too much trust in 900m form but the placegetters from that race have both run well since. 1. Pisces returns a gelding after last being beaten four lengths by Straight Charge. Maps to get the run of the race. The same can't be said for 5. Ikasara but he'll burn across. Gapped his rivals in his second trial.

How To Play It: Seascape WIN

5. Biographer began awkwardly at Gosford last start which didn't help his cause. In the end, Miss Hades was too strong at the finish but he kept trying. The four-year-old showed last campaign that he can hold his form deep into a preperation. Fourth up last time in he ran Our Kobison to half a length, beating third comfortably. The four-year-old has drawn barrier 1 on Saturday so he won't want to be slow intro stride again. He typically bounces out to settle in the first couple. Sam Clipperton has been with the son of I Am Invincible in his past three runs. It's also significant that Biographer has been heavily backed in each of those starts. He is no star but in an open race he sets up well and the price appeals.

Dangers: 11. Eye Pea Oh will get last look if the speed is on. The mare is looking to replicate what she did last preparation. She resumed with an eye-catching run at the midweeks before angling into the clear from a low draw second up to win a Midway. 17. Runwiththetide is still frustrating stuck on a maiden win. He is better than that. Has been stretched out to 1400m and 1600m in the past. Too honest not to run well again, regardless of the trip. 12. Mad Darcey started $5 in her last three starts, all Midway company, winning one and running second in another. The market has been quick to forget her. She failed last start out to 1200m on a wet track. Freshened since. 14. Broadway Bouncer is flying since dropping back in trip.

How To Play It: Biographer EACH WAY

12. Nana's Wish looks to get control from a prominent position in a race without a lot of pressure on paper. That could prove the difference. It looks an astute piece of placement from the Ciaron Maher stable. The four-year-old has raced in Melbourne at her past two starts, winning comfortably at Pakenham with 60kg on her back having sat outside of the leader, before being beaten two lengths by Legacies. Again, she started in the market. There is more depth to this race, and she faces the colts and geldings, but she gets some weight relief. Dylan Gibbons knows the mare well having ridden her twice already this campaign. Also like the three weeks between runs for her and the 1500m distance is just about perfect. Even race but there's a lot in her favour at an each way quote.

Dangers: It won't be lost on Nash Rawiller the lack of leaders engaged and 4. Rhythm Of Love, drawn barrier 1, also maps to be in the first couple. He won from the inside gate first up, stalking the leaders. Second up he got too far back in Listed company before bouncing back out to 1400m in the South Pacific Classic, fighting out the finish with Panic. It was against his own age but wouldn't penalise him too much on that basis given the make up of the field. The only knock is the price. 2. Highlights sat in behind a fast race at Rosehill first up and knocked up late. Has trialled well since and he improved sharply to lose in a photo against Unspoken second up last campaign, in BM88 company. 1. Ruby Flyer was only beaten three lengths by Territory Express last start. A lot less depth here.

How To Play It: Nana's Wish Each WAY

3. Perennial has a horrible draw to overcome. That's the gamble. A three-wide running line might be the best Aaron Bullock can hope for. There are six emergencies so the barrier won't be quite as scary post scratchings. It's still far from ideal over the 1100m at Rosehill, especially on a firming track come Saturday with no rain forecast. We saw the three-year-old savage the line behind Once Again My Girl over 1000m back in March. It screamed that he wanted further despite his three previous wins being over 900m. It's been eight weeks since the gelding has raced but he has won two trials since, both with Bullock in the saddle. Talented horse that looks set to race through the grades, just needs a few things to go his way.

Dangers: 13. Martini Mumma has it all in front of her too. The Matt Dale-trained filly has won her last two starts by a combined 11 lengths. She didn't beat much but ran time on both occasions. The grey has been sent around $1.60 and $1.26. She's rightfully well found given her profile. It's been stop-start career for 7. Tanglewood so far. He's first up for 39 weeks having just his fifth start as a four-year-old. He has no shortage of talent either but he too draws awkwardly. It's a similar case for 2. Remember Jack, drawing off the track. He has a fitness base to potentially cope better with that. He doesn't help himself with his manners but he hasn't had much go his way recently. 8. Wilbury and 6. Compelling Truth rate mentions.

How To Play It: Perennial WIN

2. Razeta gets back in the run so she needs luck at the right time but she looks to have found the right grade of race. The four-year-old has won just three of her 17 starts but 12 of those have been in feature races. Two of her wins have been on heavy tracks, which is another little knock on top of her racing pattern, but she has proven herself capable on firmer footing too. She got a pass mark first up in Group company before running on late to be beaten two lengths by Gringotts at Rosehill. That was in a BM88 against the boys. Third up she is back in grade against her own sex. Third up last campaign she was also 1400m back to 1200m and finished midfield, beaten three lengths in the Silver Eagle.

Dangers: Have been guilty of underestimating 9. Miss Hades. No more. She steps in Saturday grade for the first time but is taking it all in her stride at the moment and Gary Portelli appears to have found the perfect assignment. Has tactical speed. A big advantage over a couple of her key rivals. 4. Fall For Cindy also maps to be giving away a big head start. She caught the eye first up at Warwick Farmand is two from two second up. The drop back in trip perhaps isn't ideal for her but she looks set to run up to her best. Like the intent of 11. Demiana tackling 1300m first up. Want to see her put a field away again but maps to poke home late without doing any early work. Respect the class of 1. Healing Oasis.

How To Play It: Razeta EACH WAY

On the evidence of his first up win, 1. Let's Try has come back better again. It's all started to click for the four-year-old. It took him six starts to break his maiden. Now he has won three of his last four starts. He just had to learn on the job. Brandon Larena comes to town to stick with the son of All Too Hard, having been with him all the way through. Nobody knows him better. No other jockey has ever won on him. Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou think the timing is right to give Let's Try his chance in Saturday company and this assignment looks to have fallen perfectly. There doesn't look to be a lot of pressure on paper so he'll bounce out, settle in the first couple and get his chance to chalk up win number four.

Dangers: 9. Ostraka has the makings of a handy three-year-old. Like the way he won his maiden before being deep-ended in Group company a month later. His past form suggests 1400m is more his go but be wary if the market suggests he is ready. Could prove to be the best horse here. Patience is starting to wear a little thin with 7. Cigar Flick but she is better than what she has shown recently. First up she pulled up slow to recover after failing as a $2.40 chance at the midweeks before a vet exam revealed superficial lacerations post her run in the PJ Bell Stakes. Mini D-Day for her this weekend. 11. Keep Your Cool is chasing three straight, with Tyler Schiller producing a peach of a ride at Gosford last start. 5. West Of Africa returning a gelding could be significant. 6. Yiska is racing better than the form guide suggests.

How To Pay It: Let's Try WIN

Happy to take the punt that Nathan Doyle will have 12. Kipsbay ready to fire first up despite being 47 weeks between runs. Running the five-year-old in a BM94 might be a hint in itself. The sprinter has won three of his six starts since being transferred to Doyle with his first up win at Eagle Farm last campaign particularly impressive. That saw him start $2.20 against Antino second up. Perhaps 1100m is on the sharp side for him nowadays but this doesn't promise to be a sit-sprint. There is speed drawn right across the track. Dylan Gibbons won't have to spend a penny early to find cover in behind that tempo having drawn barrier 1. Carries 53.5kg in this company and like the way he has trialled up ahead of his return, even allowing for the fact that he has been impressive trialler.

Dangers: 11. Fox Fighter looks dangerously set up to cause a blowout. His pattern doesn't see him win often now he has found his level but he has a surprisingly good record over the Rosehill 1100m and a drying track plays to his strengths. Speed on. Lethal turn of foot on top of the ground. The barrier looks tricky for 15. Kazou on paper but she could make a mockery of that given her early toe. Typically isn't the first into stride but she musters quickly. Just has to harness her brilliance. Won her recent Rosehill trial by the length of the straight. 14. Eagle Nest sets up well to find her best form again. Back to 1100m, back in grade and drawn to be smothered up. Should have something to offer late.

How To Play It: Kipsbay WIN

10. Iknowastar went fast in front first up. It was a brave run to be beaten a length with 61kg on his back. The four-year-old has a history of improving into his campaign too. He was due to run last Saturday only for the race to be abandoned. Don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, giving him a month between runs. The Bjorn Baker-trained gelding is up in grade second up but drops 6kg because of that. Most significantly isa the map. He look the only leader engaged. He should be able to dictate from the outset. We saw how dynamic he was from that controlling position last preperation as he raced his way through the grades. He has won eight of his past 12 starts and there still looks to be more to come. Hard to chase down with the set up. His main threats are first up.

Dangers: 1. Lion's Roar didn't have much luck with barriers last campaign. His past two first up runs have been deceptively good. One of those was in Group One weight for age company behind Anamoe. Iknowastar should take him everywhere he needs to go in the straight. 4. Waterford has a great first up record and has fired over this track and trip in the past (6:3-1-1). Just wish there was more speed engaged for him given he'll be buried midfield on the fence. Nine-year-old 9. Riyazan was terrific in two runs for Team Hawkes and his recent trial suggests he has come back. Just didn't run out a strong 2000m when second to Naval College. Maps beautifully too.

How To Play It: Iknowastar WIN

1. Sir Lucan is slugged with 61.5kg in this grade of race. Now easy task but he comes back to benchmark company and maps to lead. He has been at his most effective from that position since he started racing in Australia. In his two first up runs for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott he won at Randwick over 2000m from in front, he was dominant too, while over the spring he ran Soulcombe to a 2.7L margin. He took a trail on that occasion. Three trials suggest he is very forward, winning the latest of those at Canterbury. He has only had two in the past, even prior to winning first up after a 66 week spell this time last year. He is one-paced but he'll fight.

Dangers: 8. Premise had no excuses in the G3 Epona Stakes last start, peaking on her run late when fifth to Osmose. She charged to the line the start prior, making ground up the fence at the end of a mile. Perhaps a drop back to 1800m suits. Tactics could prove decisive for 4. Andalus from the wide draw. Has raced well from on top of the speed in the past including second up last campaign at Eagle Farm. That was over 1815m from barrier 9. There is a precedent there. He was good first up at Gosford, getting the better of both 7. Pervade and 10. Gan Teorainn. Gan Teorainn is becoming frustrating, running well without winning. She tends to hit a flat spot before coming again.

How To Play It: Sir Lucan EACH WAY

Wish this was 1400m for 13. Ivan's Hero but it's still a winnable race for the four-year-old. His two runs back have been down the Flemington straight. That was new to him. First up over 1200m he stuck on well to run second in a busy finish as a $5.50 chance. He reappeared four weeks later over 1100m. That was too sharp. The beaten margin is deceptive though. He was crowded over the last couple of hundred metres. He was never going to win but given his grinding style, he wouldn't have thrown it away. He switched from Melbourne to Sydney with success last campaign winning at Rosehill over 1400m from outside of the leader. That preceded seconds to Principessa and Ausbred Flirt. He's a month between runs again but that's worked for him in the past.

Dangers: 7. Starman is now winless for 119 weeks. He had excuses at Wyong last start, forced to the middle of the track. The two that stuck to the inside fought out the finish. Yet another placing. That's now four straight minors. Nash Rawiller jumps back on. Maps to get his chance. 2. Diamond Diesel should enjoy a soft run too. Comes through Provincial Midway Qualifiers which read well for this. Found winning form in two runs last campaign. 14. Eastern Glow is another that'd probably prefer this to be 1400m. Attacked the line at Canberra first up and he has raced well at Rosehill in the past, albeit in Highway company14. 10. Gracilistyla has his convictions as well, with 110 weeks between wins but he typically isn't far away.

How To Play It: Ivan's Hero WIN